The Economy Cannot be Forecast; The Market Cannot be Timed
Yoda’s idea, “Difficult to see, Always in motion is the future,” turns out to be exactly right. There are too many variables at work on something so incomprehensible as “the economy” or “the market.” One small (perhaps even intentional) change in one variable (e.g. FED funds rate) unpredictably causes additional changes across other variables, which in turn, cause more changes and so on. Each change multiplies to create outcomes that are unknowable. The future… moves.