The great companies of the US and the World are on sale. That sale may (or may not) get better. If it does get better, it won’t get that much better. There will be some point in the not-too-distant future where we look back at today – the September retest of the June low – and say, “I wish I would have invested then.”
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We know – vividly – what has already happened. We can never know what will come next. The humble recognition of this truth should be the foundation of any long-term investment philosophy. The question is, “Given that we cannot know what comes next, how should we invest?”
Most professional services firms ultimately have to wrestle with the issue of client minimums. Solo providers or very small silo firms may avoid it for a while, but every firm that grows (which is, every firm that is any good at all) will eventually need to increase their minimums. This has always bothered me.
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There is a lot of negative news out there right now. Inflation is the worst it has been in 4 decades, there may be a recession around the corner, supply chains are still problematic. When will it end? I don’t know, but I’d be careful about getting overly swept up in it.
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The best way to completely destroy any chance for lifetime investment success has historically been to sell one’s quality equity portfolios in a bear market. In Warren Buffet’s words, it is wise for investors to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
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Historically, it seems the primary function of financial journalism (perhaps all journalism) is to scare us out of our wits. We have been reminded of this almost hourly since the S&P 500 entered official “bear market territory” on Monday, June 13th by closing 20% below its previous all-time high set in January of 2022.
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It is impossible to know where today’s 8.6% inflation will lead. If it hangs on for too long, it will begin hurting everyone’s retirement income plan. Our definitions of "money" and "wealth" hinge on successfully solving the retirement income problem.
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Yoda’s idea, “Difficult to see, Always in motion is the future,” turns out to be exactly right. There are too many variables at work on something so incomprehensible as “the economy” or “the market.” One small (perhaps even intentional) change in one variable (e.g. FED funds rate) unpredictably causes additional changes across other variables, which in turn, cause more changes and so on. Each change multiplies to create outcomes that are unknowable. The future… moves.
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If you have recently begun investing –OR– if you have recently changed your investing philosophy and a bear market arrives, it is very easy to become scared out of your process. Because…
Michael Sherlock of the Shock Your Potential Podcast interviews Jonathan DeYoe, author of Mindful Money
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This is a really important distinction to know about. Whether you notice the storytelling or not… it is happening all the time. The more you notice it, the less you suffer.